Blog #2

 Has the Ukraine Conflict Proved that Russia is a Declining Nation?

Russia has begun to show signs of immense weakness and insecurity in the past year, depicting how fragile the country is. The conflict occurring in Ukraine is a prime example of how quickly the fragility of a nation can be tested and is going to be a significant test for both the Russian and Ukrainian governments. When current Russian leader Vladimir Putin replaced Boris Yeltsin in 1999, the country experienced a complete economic turnaround, creating new jobs within the middle class, increasing GDP, and reestablishing the nation as a premier world power. However, in recent years, Putin has shown new desperation to reinforce Russian dominance on a global scale seemingly. His main outlet in doing this is by waging war against Ukraine, attempting to recapture what he believes should be a Soviet territory, something he already did in 2014 by annexing Crimea. Due to the current invasion, major global powers are imposing heavy sanctions on Russia, crippling their economy for the foreseeable future and proving that Putin’s aggression will not allow him to maintain control and influence. 

Furthermore, the Russian military’s setbacks in the past years have gone entirely unnoticed. In an article titled “Russia is Not Strong, and Putin is Even Weaker,” author Pavel Baev asserts, “It is clear to serious Russian economists that military expenditures have been out of control for the last four quarters at least. Such spending cannot be sustained indefinitely, and deep cuts in the defense budget are certain.” Potentially due to Russia’s prominent Nuclear stockpile, its military seems more potent than it is. This weakness was proven in the first week of fighting in Ukraine. Russia has failed to gain air superiority and capture critical Ukrainian provinces, as they are being met by fierce determination from Ukrainian forces. Although Russia does have an advantage of sheer numbers, the world is watching as their untrained army is being somewhat exposed.

One of Russia’s main strengths is its significant exports of natural gas, one of the critical factors in its economy. However, the invasion of Ukraine is beginning to show that other countries that rely on Russian resources are willing to forgo trade deals to prove a point. For example, Nord Stream 2, a significant pipeline exporting gas from Russia to Germany, has been decisively put on hold by the German government. The pipeline would’ve shipped more than a quarter of the total natural gas the European Union uses in a year. It would’ve heavily added to the “stranglehold” which Russia has over Europe’s natural gas. American President Joe Biden even promised to shut down the pipeline entirely if Russia invaded Ukraine. This fierce global resistance which Russia’s unwarranted aggression has been met by was most certainly not expected by the Kremlin. If Russia can no longer export its central economic resource, it will continue to lose its influence over Europe and Western nations. 

Ultimately, the conflict in Ukraine has proved that major global powers are willing to unite against Russian aggression, discrediting Putin’s final attempts to reestablish Russia’s sphere of influence before it disappears entirely. Russia is no doubt much more fragile of a nation than it seems, and the invasion of Ukraine only furthers that assertion. Whether or not the invasion is successful, Putin is showing the world how desperate Russia has become to regain the power and influence it once had.