Blog 2

                                     Russia & Ukraine: Is Nuclear Warfare a Real Possibility 


The idea of nuclear weapons being used in war is a concept that seems so foreign, given the last time that nuclear warfare had been utilized was during the final stages of World War II. Concerning the recent events surrounding the Russian and Ukrainian War, it is no longer guaranteed that nuclear weapons will not resurface in battle. War is preventable through a balance of power and with the help of NATO, being a defense of alliance. Putin gained power throughout his rule by gambling in politics, in hopes that the rest of the world will play into his power games. This produces a country whose success hinges on luck and deception, rather than true effectiveness. The balance of power has been upset by Putin’s aggression and Trump's questioning of the NATO alliance, and due to Putin’s unpredictability, it makes the use of nuclear weapons in the near future very possible.

 Recent publications have shown that a protruding weak point of the Russian military is their lack of morale. Their army is composed of many young soldiers many of whom don’t want to fight or are confused on why they are even sent into Ukraine as the aggressor. Vladimir Putin “made little effort to prepare soldiers to fight against fellow Slavs or [even] explain why the war was necessary” (Lyall). Due to this low morale and lack of skill set seen by the Russian military it calls for an increase in violence if Russia truly wants to win this war. This violence increase has already been seen by Russia’s choice to bomb “a TV tower in Ukraine’s capital on Tuesday” and “rain rockets on the city of Kharkviv” starting March 1st (Vasovic). Russia has also started the use of thermobaric bombs, which produce a significantly longer blast wave then the typical explosion; his blast wave is capable of vaporizing human bodies. This shows a very early drastic switch in tactics that can in part be accounted for by the lack of communication and training seen throughout the Russian military. The quickness and drastic nature of the shift in tactics make it highly possible that Putin is planning on using Russia’s nuclear arsenal in the future if the war does not turn in favor of Russia. 

After entering this war, Putin has been painted by the public as a power hungry leader who is willing to kill civilians, including children, to further his power, in turn making his popularity decrease drastically. Due to his usage of aerial attacks and missiles, he has already been accused of committing multiple war crimes. This pressure from his citizens and the international community could back him into a corner where he feels that using nuclear weapons is the only possible way to achieve a victory. Any leader who thinks they may lose power or possibly die may be more likely to take chances as they near their end as an effort to stay in power (Shirk). The simple fact that Putin put his nuclear forces on high alert means that at minimum he has talked about using nuclear weapons. If his economic resources and support continue to decline he may feel the need to act drastically, resulting in mutually assured destruction for the majority the world. In the eyes of a leader fighting a losing battle they may choose to destroy the rest of the world if they are going to be powerless regardless. 

Putin may be training to gain the attention of NATO and the great world powers by insinuating that he is planning to use nuclear weapons. Like most of his political career thus far, it is probable he is bluffing and is trying to draw a response out of the United States or NATO, by a threat this large. Trump's endorsement of Putin and scrutiny of NATO formed a small window that other leaders could then use to try to gain some of the power that NATO currently holds. This plan was foiled as the United Nations grew closer to deal with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the US took action like blocking Russia from their SWIFT system, halting many powerful figures in Russia from having access to their international assets. If restrictions like this continue, then Putin may feel he has no other option than to use drastic measures such as nuclear weapons as a source to gain some of his power back through fear. 


Bibliography 

Lyall, Jason. “Analysis | It's Hard for Russia to Invade Ukraine When Its Soldiers Don't Want to 

Be There.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 1 Mar. 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/01/russia-low-morale-ukraine-invasion/. 

Person, and Aleksandar Vasovic. “Russia Bombards Ukraine Urban Areas as Armed Convoy 

Stalls.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 2 Mar. 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-isolation-intensifies-ukraine-fighting-rages-2022-03-01/. 

Comments

  1. Evan GoldsteinMarch 7, 2022 at 10:37 AM

    I completely agree with your blog post. I think that especially given Putin's rhetoric before and during the invasion, along with various assessments by Russian policy experts, such as Fiona Hill, nuclear weapons are definitely on the table for Putin. I think that the longer his invasion stagnates, and the more economic sanctions levied by the US and other countries around the world that continue to cripple the Russian economy, the more likely Putin is to resort to nuclear weapons. I also agree that by continuing to back Putin in a corner and the more likely he is to lose, the more foreseeable it is that he decides to use nuclear weapons. Furthermore, I also find the Russian military's lack of training and flow of information interesting. As the blog points out, many of the Russian troops being sent into Ukraine are conscripts, rather than just professional, contract soldiers. This may help to explain their poor performance and why the Russian troops seem so demoralized and why many of them are so confused behind the purpose of the war. Finally, I also find the Russian's lack of logistical support interesting as well.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sofia GordonMarch 8, 2022 at 8:26 PM

    I think that you've brought up some very insightful and necessary topics that need to be considered. Personally, I was trying to view this chaos through a more hopeful and optimistic perspective. While Putin has put his nuclear forces on high alert, nineteen documented nuclear threats have been made by world leaders since 1945, and thankfully have never been seen through. This history of nuclear threats has given us insight to how much power nuclear arms has unilaterally- the notion of such warfare is immediately remedied by enemies and allies alike. While Putin's play to prepare nuclear weapons is both appalling and horrifying, I think that he could be betting on the power of his "blush". Yet you highlight in your post you outlined a strong rebuttal to this idea, one where we have to consider the harsh realities of how far Putin might be willing to go. From his actions and lack of consideration toward maintaining morale, Putin may be aiming to lead out of fear above all else.

    ReplyDelete

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