Blog 5

With the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine, the notion of great power conflict has once again become extremely relevant and real. This invasion shocked many Western viewers, who had become accustomed to seeing warfare through the lens of the Global War on Terror. In this campaign, the West found itself fighting in mostly low intensity conflicts against insurgencies and terrorist groups, rather than professional militaries. While the war in Ukraine is “the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II '' (Rand), there is another great power conflict that, if it were to break out, would potentially lead to greater consequences for the United States than the war in Ukraine. This potential future conflict would be between the United States and China over control of Taiwan. This is for many different reasons, to include, military, economic, and political. For one, Taiwan is a part of an important island chain that the US can use to box the Chinese navy in and cut China off from the Pacific ocean in the event of a shooting war. Alongside this, Taiwan is the hub of the production of advanced semiconductors, and whoever has control of this industry in Taiwan, essentially controls the “petroleum of the digital age” (Sauer). Finally, Taiwan represents a major US commitment in the region. If the US were to abandon their decades-long assurance to defend Taiwan, it would give other US allies in the region a reason to doubt the US’s security guarantees and weaken the soft power of the US, thus leading to an even likelier chance of conflict. Because of these factors, Taiwan has much more significance for the US than Ukraine does and the US should do everything within its power in order to defend the island from a PRC attack.

Taiwan finds itself in the unique position of being incredibly strategically valuable to the US strategy to contain China, should a war break out between the two nations. China, unlike the US, only has access to the ocean through one coast. This coast is surrounded by US allies, including Japan and South Korea in the North, Taiwan in the middle, and the Philippines to the south. Because of this, the US has the ability to cut China off from the global supply chain and prevent its navy and merchant marine ships from advancing into the Pacific Ocean. This strategy not only causes major issues for the Chinese economy, as it is primarily export driven, but also protects the US and its Navy. The range of Chinese surface ships is dramatically reduced and Chinese submarines are unable to escape into the larger Pacific Ocean, where they can cause the most harm. Furthermore, the US and her allies in the region have the ability to use this island chain to deter China from even attacking in the first place. As Dr. James R. Holmes, a professor at the US Naval Institute, states in his article, Defend the First Island Chain, “Islands bristling with antiship and anti air weaponry can cast a long shadow over sea passages, making themselves strongpoints in an offshore barricade” and that “Best of all, these are low-cost measures that compel China to mount countermeasures at high cost to itself, and with doubtful efficacy” (Holme Thus, the successful defense of Taiwan is imperative to detering China and ensuring that if it does decide to attack the US or any of its allies, it will lose. In the case of Ukraine, while it is important that it does not 

With the arrival of the digital age, came the necessity of semiconductors and Taiwan leads the world in both semiconductor production and innovation. The Taiwanese company, TSMC or the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, runs the plants where the semiconductors are made and is responsible for much of the innovation behind new semiconductor technology. As David Sauer writes in his opinion piece, America must prepare for war with China over Taiwan, “​​Chinese control of TSMC would provide it enormous economic benefit and would result in the world being dependent on an authoritarian regime for advanced semiconductors.” Possessing this incredibly valuable technology and institutional knowledge would give China a massive advantage against the West throughout the remainder of the 21st century and beyond. 

The fall of Afghanistan shocked many people around the world, with one of the principal consequences being that the US position became weaker in the eyes of both allies and adversaries. The fall of Taiwan would be no different. US prestige would be even further weakened around the world. Alongside this, Taiwan is not only a US ally in the region, but also a democracy and “supporting an isolated democracy from external threats is implicitly beneficial to the normative standards the U.S. supports” (Bolton). Thus, it is imperative, not only for American prestige worldwide, but also to adhere to the values that the US represents, that the US come to the defense of Taiwan. 

In the case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, I believe that the US must do everything in its power to ensure that Taiwan does not fall. This includes deploying American soldiers in a combat capacity and leading allies in the region to deter the Chinese. I think that the US response to Chinese aggression against Taiwan should mirror that of the US response to Iraq after it invaded its neighbor Kuwait in 1990. This includes forming an international coalition to confront China and first try to solve the conflict through diplomacy, but use military force if necessary. Thus, because of Taiwan’s strategic, economic, and political importance, the US cannot allow it to fall to China or Chinese influence. 

Works Cited 

Unknown. “Russia's War in Ukraine: Insights from Rand.” RAND Corporation, https://www.rand.org/latest/russia-ukraine.html. 

David Sauer, opinion contributor. “America Must Prepare for War with China over Taiwan.” The Hill, The Hill, 24 Nov. 2021, https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/582767-america-must-prepare-for-war-with-china-over-taiwan/. 

Holmes, James R. “Defend the First Island Chain.” U.S. Naval Institute, United States, 21 Feb. 2019, https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2014/april/defend-first-island-chain. 

Bolton, John, and Derik R. Zitelman. “Why Taiwan Matters to the United States.” – The Diplomat, For The Diplomat, 23 Aug. 2021, https://thediplomat.com/2021/08/why-taiwan-matters-to-the-united-states/.